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O futuro das finanças globais (mais
uma do dólar)
A série Crossroads
- essays examining changes in the
collective American experience - do Sunday
Book Review (New York Times)
publicou, no último dia 17 de setembro, o texto The
Future of Global Finance, de Liaquat Ahamed, autor do best-seller
nos EUA, Lords
of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke The World.
O artigo é um excelente apanhado do vem sendo debatido sobre o futuro
da economia internacional pós-crise. Um possível cenário, aponta
Ahamed, prevê um grande ajuste no consumo americano, no modelo
exportador asiático - que muitos defenderam para o Brasil nos anos 1990
- e nos bancos que lidam com as finanças globalizadas. O receio é de um
forte processo de "desglobalização", como o que ocorreu após a Grande Depressão.
"One scenario has the world adjusting
smoothly to the new realities. American consumers, tapped out by debt,
tighten their belts. The Asian economies reconsider the wisdom of
relying so heavily on exports to drive their growth and focus more on
domestic consumption. And with less money to recycle, international
banks, which had done such a poor job, are cut down to size."
Mas, para o analista, a situação ainda pode ficar pior no mercado
global.
"[T]wo dangers could make the current
bad situation worse. One is that China finds it too difficult or
politically costly to restructure its economy and, despite the changes
in the global market, keeps its foot on the export accelerator. Since
the American consumer cannot afford to keep buying, this would set off
a cycle of trade wars among Asian countries competing for ever smaller
markets.
The second is yet
another version of Triffin’s dilemma: if even a small fraction of
foreign holders of dollars were to be spooked by our budgetary
problems, we could have a spike in the cost of capital just when the
economy is trying to recover. The risk of such a situation is clearly
on the minds of Chinese policy makers. Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of
the People’s Bank of China, explicitly referred to Triffin’s dilemma in
a speech this March on the need for reform of the international
monetary system."
Sobre o problema do déficit
americano em conta
corrente, discutido por Ahamed, diz o Peterson
Institute for International Economics:
"The global current account deficit
of the United States is now larger than it has ever been—nearing $800
billion, almost 7 percent of US GDP. To finance both the current
account deficit and its own sizable foreign investments, the United
States must import about $1 trillion of foreign capital every year or
more than $4 billion every working day. The situation is unsustainable
in both international financial and domestic political (i.e., trade
policy) terms. Correcting it must be the highest priority for US
foreign economic policy. The most constructive remedy in the short term
is a three-part package that includes credible, sizable reductions in
the US budget deficit, expansion of domestic demand in major economies
outside the United States, and a gradual but substantial realignment of
exchange rates."
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